Tonight’s decisive game between the Miami Heat and the Boston Celtics will send one team to the NBA Finals. The other is going home.
The pregame narrative: Despite tailing a teased-down over, we’re fading Jimmy Butler’s points prop on Monday as he continues to be a quantity-over-quality shooter. Also, Game 6 hero Derrick White gets a nod amid his blazing streak beyond the arc.
Check out our +410 Heat vs. Celtics same-game parlay picks for Game 7 on May 29.
NBA odds as of 10:30 a.m. on 05/29/2023.
Heat vs. Celtics same-game parlay picks
Parlay: Over 197.5 points + Butler under 29.5 points + White over 2.5 threes (+410)
Over 197.5 points (-220) : The under has hit in three games in a row, and it hit for both squads in their clinching game of the conference semis. Now they’re seeing the lowest projected total of the series (203.5), which is a total they’ve cleared in all six games.
We think taking the over on the standard line is fine as a straight bet, but for a parlay, we’ll trim it down a touch more.
Exactly 207 points were scored in Games 5 and 6, which marks the low watermark for scoring in this playoff series. Through 10 games against each other dating back to the regular season, the Celtics and Heat have cleared 197.5 points all but once.
The average point total across those 10 Celtics/Heat games (regular season included) is 221.3.
Butler under 29.5 points (-143) : Though we expect Butler to get plenty of shots up in Game 7, we don’t think he’ll fill the bucket to this extent. The Heat star is shooting 40.0% on 18.0 shots per game over his past six matchups, hitting this under all six times.
In fact, Butler’s 35-point performance in Game 1 of this series is the only time he’s scored 30-plus in his past 11 games. He’s averaging 24.4 PPG in that span.
The floor is high for the ball-dominant forward who typically logs 40-plus minutes. But we’re skeptical about Butler’s ceiling, especially given how well Boston has done to quiet him.
White over 2.5 threes (-115) : If not for White’s buzzer-beating tip-in at the end of Game 6, Boston would already be making vacation plans. Most of White’s impact comes beyond the arc, though, and that’s where we’re backing him for Monday.
The guard is shooting a blistering 55.3% from 3-point range in this series, hitting this over all six times.
He’s been instrumental all postseason — averaging 2.5 made threes on 47.5% shooting — but his minutes have ticked up lately.
After playing 20 minutes in Game 1 against Miami, White has seen additional minutes in each subsequent game — leading up to a playoff-high 42 minutes last time out. We’re hoping that an influx of minutes leads to enough volume for him to ride this hot streak.
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